A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
