Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
